CIRCLE (The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement)
conducts research on the civic and political engagement of young Americans.
The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement

YESI 2018: Top 50 Congressional Districts

April 11th, 2018
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Last month, we released the top 10 congressional districts in our 2018 Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI), a data-based tool that ranks the 2018 midterm races around the country where young people have the highest potential to have a decisive impact on the result. We later shared the top 10 statewide races—Senate and gubernatorial—where youth could shape the results.

Because young people are poised to make their presence felt in more than a handful of elections across the country, today we’re releasing the top 50 congressional races in our 2018 YESI rankings.

1. IA 1st
2. MN 1st
3. MN 3rd
4. MI 11th
5. CO 6th
6. MN 8th
7. IL 6th
8. NE 2nd
9. MN 2nd
10. CA 39th
11. NJ 11th
12. NY 22nd
13. CA 49th
14. NH 1st
15. NY 19th
16. NJ 5th
17. CA 48th
18. WA 8th
19. IL 12th
20. VA 10th
21. AZ 2nd
22. ME 2nd
23. KS 2nd
24. CA 25th
25. MN 7th
26. MI 8th
27. TX 7th
28. KY 6th
29. AZ 1st
30. IA 3rd
31. MT at-large
32. NV 3rd
33. CA 10th
34. NC 13th
35. CA 45th
36. KS 3rd
37. TX 23rd
38. TX 32nd
39. UT 4th
40. VA 2nd
41. VA 7th
42. IL 13th
43. NJ 7th
44. GA 6th
45. IA 2nd
46. NY 10th
47. CA 24th
48. CA 7th
49. NY 11th
50. WI 3rd

These 50 districts crisscross the nation—from Maine, to Texas, to Washington State—highlighting that young voters’ possible electoral power is not confined to a few battleground states or a specific region of the country. However, several states stand out because they have multiple districts in the top 50.

California, which has the most Congressional districts in the nation, also leads with eight 2018 House races in the top 50, which underscores the competitive nature of several elections in what is usually considered a safely “blue” state. Minnesota, which could be considered the top overall state across all our YESI rankings (1st in gubernatorial, 2nd in Senate) has five of its eight congressional districts in the top 50—four of which are in the top 10. New York has four top-50 districts, while Iowa, Illinois, New Jersey, Texas, and Virginia all have three.

It is important to note that, due to recent redistricting, races in Florida and Pennsylvania are not included in the 2018 YESI rankings. However, we certainly expect young people to have high electoral significance in several elections in those states that are expected to be especially competitive. In the coming weeks, we will continue to assess available data to in order to examine the youth vote’s potential in these two historically battleground states.

The YESI can help stakeholders who care about young voters to identify where attention and resources can have a significant impact. It can also be a tool for equity and broadening engagement, if efforts focus on reaching those not yet engaged in the top-ranked locations. We hope that the Youth Electoral Significance Index continues to be a useful tool for campaigns, organizations, and others —and to convince those who have not paid much attention to young voters that they are a powerful electoral force in 2018 and beyond.

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