2016 Election Center

This page contains the most important CIRCLE data and analysis related to youth and the 2016 presidential election, as well as additional resources such as data maps. We also feature a selection of news items that have featured CIRCLE data and analysis related to the 2016 campaign, and information for media inquiries.

Quick Facts |  2016 Analysis | Youth Electoral Significance Index
In the News | For Media

Quick Facts

Youth Voting | Youth Demographics
Trends by Race, Ethnicity, and Gender | Non-College Youth

2016 Election Analysis

Post-Election Analysis

• Post-election Millennial Poll Reveals Divides, Opportunities for Youth Engagement – 3/8/17

General Election Analysis

• Full Analysis: Young Voters in the 2016 General Election – 11/17/16
• More Young White Men, More College-Grads Among 2016 Youth Electorate – 11/14/16
• An Estimated 24 Million Young People Voted in 2016 Election – 11/9/16
• Young People Reject Trump, But Older Voters Propel Him to Unexpected Victory – 11/9/16

From the Primaries to the General

• CIRCLE 2016 Millennial Poll: Full Analysis – 10/27/16
• Exclusive CIRCLE Poll on Millennial Attitudes about Presidential Election, Contact by Campaigns/Parties – 10/17/16
• Top 50 Districts Where Young People May Impact the 2016 Congressional Elections – 9/19/16
• Hillary Clinton and Young Voters – 8/10/16
• Youth Voting in the 2016 Primaries – 7/27/16
• Donald Trump and Young Voters – 6/21/16

Caucus/Primary Data

• West Virginia and Nebraska: Youth Turnout High in West Virginia; Young Republican Primary Voters Seem to Turn to Trump – 5/11/16
• Indiana: 25% of Youth in Indiana Participate in Primary – 5/4/16
• Super Tuesday 3.0 (CT, MD, PA): High Youth Turnout Continues in Maryland, Connecticut; Young Voters Still Lukewarm on Frontrunners – 4/27/16
• New York: Record-Breaking Youth Turnout in New York Fueled by Participation in Democratic Primary – 4/20/16
• Wisconsin: Estimated Youth Turnout in Wisconsin Second-Highest in 2016 Primaries – 4/7/16
• Super Tuesday (in-Depth Democratic analysis): Young Women and Non-Black Youth Favored Sanders on Super Tuesday; Issue Priorities Drive Differences in Vote Choice by Age – 3/31/16
• March 17 Snapshot: Total Youth Votes Cast in 2016 Primaries and Caucuses – 3/17/16
• Super Tuesday 2.0 (FL, IL, MO, NC, OH): Record-Breaking Youth Turnout Continues; Clinton and Trump Still Lagging with Young Voters – 3/16/16
• Super Tuesday (in-depth Republican analysis): Race, Gender, Party Affiliation Shaped Youth Vote in Super Tuesday Republican Races – 3/14/16
• Michigan and Mississippi: Young Voters at the Core of Sanders Upset in Michigan; Republican Youth Participation Continues to Rise – 3/9/16
• South Carolina: African American Youth Support Secretary Clinton, Shape Results in South Carolina – 3/8/16
• Super Tuesday: High Youth Turnout on Super Tuesday Exceeded Impressive 2008 Participation in Several States – 3/2/16
• South Carolina: Which, Why, and How Republican Youth voted in South Carolina? – 2/29/16
• South Carolina: Youth Participation in South Carolina Exceeds 2008 High; Young People Prefer Different Candidates than Older Voters – 2/28/16
• Nevada: Young Republicans in Nevada Caucus in Record Numbers, Not as Keen on Trump – 2/24/16
• Nevada (D) and South Carolina (R): Republican Youth Set Another Participation Record in South Carolina – 2/21/16
• New Hampshire: Youth Voter Turnout in NH Primary Ties Record-Breaking Participation in 2008; Turnout Propelled by Republican Youth Participation – 2/10/16
• Iowa: College Student-Heavy Counties Support Sanders, Play Major Role in Iowa Caucus – 2/3/16
• Iowa: Overall Youth Turnout 11% – Republican Youth Set a Record – 84% of Young Democrats Pick Bernie – 2/2/16

Key Early State Previews

• Will Strong Youth Turnout Continue in Nevada and South Carolina? – 2/18/16
• Young New Hampshire Voters Historically Active, Independent-Minded in Primaries – 2/1/16
• Young Iowans Bellwether for Youth Electoral Support? – 1/27/16

Background

• How Youth Can Swing Elections: Lessons from 2014 – 1/25/16
• Youth Party Registration Lagging Behind 2012 in Nevada – 10/12/15
• Data Indicate GOP Candidates Should Make Concerted Effort to Talk To, Involve Young Republican Voters in Campaigns – 9/16/15
• 2014 Youth Turnout and Youth Registration Rates Lowest Ever Recorded; Changes Essential in 2016 – 7/22/15
• How Do Young People Decide Who to Vote for? – 7/20/15
• Does the Age of a Presidential Candidate Matter to Young Voters? – 5/14/15
• Young Voters on 2016 Candidates: Meh – 4/16/15

Youth Electoral Significance Index

Leading up to the election, CIRCLE’s exclusive, data-based index identified the top-10 states and congressional districts where young voters had the potential to shape the 2016 presidential, Senate, and House elections.

Click the image below to explore the interactive index, or view the full report here.

In the News

CIRCLE findings are frequently cited in news and commentary about the 2016 election, and our researchers have offered their expert analysis and commentary in multiple media outlets. A selection of those pieces is below:

2016

• Boston high-schoolers stage anti-Trump walkout. A lesson in democracy? – Christian Science Monitor, 12/6/2016
• The Problems with the Left – U.S. News & World Report, 12/2/2016
• The real problem behind fake news – Yahoo! News, 12/1/2016
• Trump’s win fuels growth in the ranks of College Republicans – The Kansas City Star, 11/28/2016
• A look at Black millennial voter performance – The Philadelphia Tribune 11/26/2016
• Confessions of a Millennial Hillary Supporter – Observer, 11/23/2016
• Millennials Ditching Party ID, Post-Election Analysis Shows – Roll Call, 11/18/2016
• Teaching civics in an age of Trump – Christian Science Monitor, 11/16/2016
• Do High School Walkouts Suggest Generational Resistance to Trump? – NBC News, 11/14/2016
• Estimates put youth vote turnout at 50 percent, heavily for Clinton except among whites – The Daily Kos, 11/11/2016
• Millennials for Trump? Twenty-somethings in Battleground States Ponder their New Reality – Vanity Fair, 11/11/2016
• Dissecting the Youth Vote – The Atlantic, 11/11/2016
• Millennials did not elect Trump – CNN, 11/10/2016
• Boomers in revolt: Was Trump’s shocking win an act of generational warfare? – Salon, 11/10/2016
• Who Voted For Trump? Millennials Supported Clinton With 54 Percent Of The Youth Vote – International Business Times, by 11/9/2016
• What This Election Taught Us About Millennial Voters – Bloomberg, 11/9/2016
• These 3 charts perfectly explain how older voters got Trump elected – Raw Story, 11/9/2016
• Here’s Why Hillary Clinton’s Troubles Aren’t Millennials’ Fault – NPR, 11/4/2016
• The Power of Millennial Voters – The Boston Globe, 11/1/2016
• Parallel universes, even among the young, by Cahterine Rampell – Washington Post, 10/28/2016
• Why don’t millennials vote as much as older generations? Blame institutional road blocks – Mic, 10/26/2016
• Record low share of young people plan to vote Republican this November – Washington Post, 10/18/2016
• Clinton’s way up with millennials — but Trump’s backers seem more eager to vote – McClatchy DC, 10/17/2016
• Clinton vs. Trump Polls: Millennials Support Hillary More Than Trump, But Will They Vote On Election Day? –  International Business Times, 10/17/2016
• Poll: Campaigns Aren’t Contacting Younger Voters – Roll Call, 10/17/2016
• A toxic election is damaging the seed corn of democracy — young voters, by Victoria McGrane – Boston Globe, 10/15/2016
• 2 pretty understandable reasons so few young voters are excited about Hillary Clinton – Vox, 10/5/2016
• Clinton’s millennial challenge – Philadelphia Inquirer, 10/2/2016
• Clinton Reassured Moderates But Didn’t Inspire The Base – Huffington Post, 9/29/2016
• Does arguing about politics turn young people off? Surprisingly, no. – Washington Post (Monkey Cage), 9/21/2016
• Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren make the pitch to millennials for Clinton – CBS News, 9/18/2016
• Millennials Have Cooled on Hillary Clinton, Forcing a Campaign Reset – Wall Street Journal, 9/16/2016
• Hillary Clinton has millennials’ support, and now she’s trying to make sure they vote – Los Angeles Times, 9/13/2016
• Get in the game: Empowering America’s next generation to vote – The Washington Times, 9/12/2016
• Why the election map has a built-in, and growing, Democratic bias – McClatchy DC, 9/12/2016
• Georgia’s young voters not satisfied with Trump, Clinton – Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 9/11/2016
• How social media helps young people — especially minorities and the poor — get politically engaged – Washington Post, 9/9/2016
• Most young people don’t vote — and these awkward efforts to woo them aren’t helping – Washington Post, 8/30/2016
• The Forgotten Millennials – New Republic, 8/25/2016
• Can political apps send more young people to the polls? – BBC News, 8/23/2016
• Millennial Generation and Campaign 2016 – C-SPAN Washington Journal, 8/22/2016
• Clinton has strong potential with young voters – if they vote – McClatchy DC, 8/11/2016
• For first-time voters, an unprecedented election with unusual choices – Kansas City Star, 8/9/2016
• How a Feminist Triumph Hurt Hillary – Politico, 8/2/2016
• How the Obama Revolution Could Hurt Hillary Clinton – TIME, 7/28/2016
• Clinton campaign learning from Sanders to boost youth vote – CBC News, 7/27/2016
• Clinton somehow needs to get Bernie Sanders’ brigade to embrace her – McClatchy DC, 7/26/2016
• For these young Republicans, student debt and jobs are top priority – PBS Newshour, 7/24/2016
• GOP insiders sat the RNC out. Now millennials are taking over – McClatchy DC, 7/20/2016
• Explaining the ‘scandals, lies and incivility’ of the 2016 election to teens – PBS Newshour, 7/12/2016
• What’s Next for College Students Who Backed Bernie – The Chronicle of Higher Education, 7/11/2016
• Clinton seeks young voters with wider debt-free college plan – The Washington Post, 7/6/2016
• Obama Makes his Debut on the Campaign Trail – The Atlantic, 7/5/2016
• They aren’t in it for ‘free stuff’: What critics get wrong about millennial Bernie Sanders supporters – Salon, 6/24/2016
• Hillary’s Plan to Woo Millennials: Steal Bernie – The Weekly Standard, 6/21/2016
• More young people voted for Bernie Sanders than Trump and Clinton combined — by a lot – The Washington Post, 6/20/2016
• Hillary Clinton must ignite devotion of young supporters – The Boston Globe, 6/16/2016
• Clinton Nabs Sanders Staffer for Millennial Voter Outreach – U.S. News and World Report, 6/10/2016
• Ripples of a revolution: what will Bernie Sanders’ supporters do next? – The Guardian, 6/9/2016
• Why Clinton is about to take a big lead over Trump – McClatchyDC, 6/7/2016
• Sanders is beating Obama’s 2008 youth vote record. And the primary’s not even over. – VOX, 6/2/2016
• Dump Trump? Some millennials aren’t so sure – Associated Press, 5/27/2016
• Young voters key to election — will Sanders’ fans go to Clinton? – San Francisco Chronicle, 5/25/2016
• U.S. presidential race: “fear” drives students to rally vote – Times Higher Education, 5/19/2016
• Millennials now rival Boomers in political force, but will they actually vote? – National Public Radio, 5/16/2016
• Clinton’s bid for Democratic unity a tough sell among some Sanders supporters – Bloomberg, 5/9/2016
• Paltry youth voter turnout in KC raises concerns – The Kansas City Star, 5/9/2016
• 16 young Americans shaping the 2016 election – Rolling Stone, 5/2/2016
• Donald Trump won millennial vote in Pennsylvania and Maryland – TIME, 4/27/2016
• Clinton must treat young voters like adults – San Francisco Chronicle, 4/24/2016
• College Students to GOP: Don’t Bother – Miami Herald, 4/22/2016
• Will Hispanic Millennials Vote? – The Atlantic, 4/21/2016
• No Candidate Left Behind – POLITICO (Morning Education), 4/21/2016
• Young voters turn out in record numbers in New York – TIME, 4/20/2016
• Exploring the youth vote on the campaign trail – Wisconsin Public Radio, 4/14/2016
• Young voters flocked to the polls on Tuesday – Milwaukee Public Radio, 4/8/2016
• Wisconsin voter ID law could hurt college students’ participation in primary, general elections – International Business Times, 4/5/2016
• Are young voters altering Republican and Democratic primary races? – National Public Radio, 4/4/2016
• Why Duke University students are calling for college administrators to be fired – Christian Science Monitor, 4/4/2016
• Why Millennials have stopped being (political) party people – Newsweek, 4/3/2016
• On campuses across the country, students are standing up for Donald Trump – Los Angeles Times, 4/1/2016
• How Bernie can Win (But He’s Not Going to Like it) – POLITICO, 3/30/2016
• Presidential Politics in the New Social Media Age – Huffington Post, 3/30/216
• Young Voters Don’t Like Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump: What that Means for November – International Business Times, 3/29/2016
• 74-year old Bernie Sanders’s remarkable dominance over young voters, in 1 chart – Washington Post, 3/17/2016
• Trump and Clinton both have problems with young voters. This is how it could cost them – Fox News, 3/15/2016
• Sanders Strength With Young People Shouldn’t be Underestimated – New York Times, 3/14/2016
• Ten States Where Millennials Will Have the Most Impact in the 2016 Election – Forbes, 2/29/2016
• Three Important Quotes from the GOP Debate, Explained – U.S. News & World Report, 2/26/2016
• Five Things Politicians Need to Know About Millennial Women to get Their Votes – Fortune, 2/25/2016
• The 10 States Where Millennials Could Sway the Election – NPR, 2/24/2016
• Young Voters, Motivated Again – The New York Times, 2/21/16
• Beyond Student Debt: Where it’s not the top Campaign Priority for Millennials – NPR, 2/19/16
• Bernie Sanders Has Already Succeeded in a Huge Way (Even If He Loses) – Washington Post, 2/11/2016
• College Freshmen Are More Politically Engaged Than They Have Been In Decades – FiveThirtyEight, 2/10/16
• Young Voters: Respect Us, We Might Vote for You – CNN, 2/5/16
• How Engaged Are Young Voters In The 2016 Presidential Election? – NPR, 2/3/16 (audio)
• Youth vote: Sanders 84%, Clinton 14%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 23%, Trump 20% – Washington Examiner, 2/2/16
• Young Voters Give Bernie Sanders a Lift in Iowa Caucuses – TIME, 2/2/16
• Can the Youth Vote Change Election Outcomes? – The Atlantic, 2/1/16
• Sanders Pins His Iowa Hopes on Fickle Voting Bloc – Bloomberg News, 1/27/16
• Millennials want to see a Trump vs. Sanders Matchup – TIME, 1/11/16
• For Media
• CIRCLE leaders and researchers are always available to speak with journalists and media outlets. We can provide tailored data, detailed analysis, and commentary informed by our deep expertise in youth political engagement. For more information, and to get in touch with us, go here.