The 2012 Republican contests so far have shown the effect of thousands of youth rallying behind one candidate, Rep. Ron Paul. However, historical data indicates that South Carolina young voters may not vote the same way as their peers in Iowa and New Hampshire. Our director discusses the factors in why this is likely at POLITICO.com in ‘New Role for Young Voters’.

In addition, here’s an overview of historical data on the participation of young SC voters:

In 2008, young people played an important role in the South Carolina primary, opting strongly for the eventual winner, Barack Obama. In the 2008 South Carolina primary, the turnout rate for ages 18-29 was 19%. Overall, 31% of all South Carolinians participated in the 2008 primary (Democratic and Republican combined). The last time there was only a competitive Republican primary in South Carolina was 1996, when 4% of young South Carolinians voted.

For more detail on the history of youth voting in South Carolina, please see CIRCLE’s South Carolina research.

In 2008, about 44,000 young South Carolinians participated in the Republican primary (representing just 7% of the state’s young people). Roughly 50,000 young people supported Barack Obama in the 2008 South Carolina primary. Young Republican primary voters in South Carolina chose Governor Mike Huckabee by a eight percentage points over Senator McCain, who received 28% of young votes in the Republican primary. Romney received 12% of young votes (5,300 votes) in the 2008 South Carolina primary, while Paul received 7% (3,100 votes).

Several factors could reduce youth turnout in the South Carolina primary this year:

• CIRCLE’s recently released research has found substantial declines in the youth voter registration rate since 2008 in key states, which could be cyclical, but either way is a ‘warning sign’ for the President. See www.civicyouth.org/?p=3177 for more information.
• Also, there will be no competitive Democratic caucus this year. In 2008, over 60% of young South Carolina primary voters participated on the Democratic side. The last time there was only a competitive Republican primary was 1996, when 25,000 youth in South Carolina participated and made up 9% of primary voters.
• Between 2004 and 2008, young evangelicals shifted from an overwhelmingly Republican constituency to one that gave about one third of their vote nationally to Sen. Barack Obama in the general election. Democrats also made gains in party identification at the expense of Republicans. But the situation may have changed substantially since 2008.
• An advantage: South Carolina is holding an ‘open primary’, meaning that Independent and Democratic young people could participate.

A sample of additional facts:

• In 2012, there are an estimated 711,000 18-to 29-year-old citizens eligible to vote in South Carolina.
• In the 2008 general election, an estimated 52.6% of young people in South Carolina cast a ballot.
• In 2008, an estimated 19% of 18-to-29 year-olds in South Carolina cast a ballot in the 2008 primary (Democratic and Republican combined).
• There were roughly 74,000 youth who participated in the Democratic primary in 2008 and 44,000 youth who participated in the Republican primary.
• In 2008, only 17% of young Republican primary voters identified as Independent.
• 85% of young voters in the 2008 South Carolina Republican primary reported they had at least some college experience. Amongst young SC Republican primary voters 35% were college graduates, which made them more likely to be a college graduate than all Republican primary voters.
• In 2008, 61% of young South Carolina Republican primary voters described themselves as ‘born-again or evangelical Christian’. 56% of young South Carolina Republican primary voters were white and described themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians.
• In the 2008 South Carolina Republican primary, youth were more likely than all voters to say candidate’s positions on issues more important than leadership/personal qualities (59% vs. 51%)

For more information on the political behaviors of young evangelicals through 2008, see CIRCLE’s fact sheet on the subject.

CIRCLE will provide a youth voter turnout estimate for the South Carolina primary on January 22.

Note: “Turnout” means the proportion of eligible citizens who participate. “Turnout” should not be confused with the proportion of South Carolina’s primary voters who are young: that statistic will be reported by the Edison Research “exit polls” on Jan. 21, but it is not a meaningful measure of youth involvement.

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