For Immediate Release
November 3, 2008

Contact: David Roscow, 703-276-2772 x21 or Sarah Shugars, 617-627-2029

Media Alert/2008 Youth Voter Data
Exit Polls to Show Only Youth Share of Voters
CIRCLE to estimate Youth Turnout Early Wednesday, Nov. 5

Conference Call-in Press Briefing to Discuss 2008 Youth Vote, 2 PM ET, Nov. 5
To RSVP please call David Roscow at 703-276-2772 x21 or email dave@tricomassociates.com

Medford/Somerville, MA – Based on high youth voter turnout in the 2008 primaries, pre-election surveys, and early voter tallies, young people are expected to vote at historic levels on Election Day. The data point to young voters’ most likely supporting the Obama/Biden presidential ticket by large margins.

WHAT: Information on youth (18-29) voters.

WHEN: Nov. 4 (probably by 8 pm ET) – Youth voter share available

Youth share indicates the percentage of those who vote who are 18-29. This is not a measure of youth turnout. If voting is up across all age groups, youth share may remain close to the 2004 number (17 percent). CIRCLE will release the total youth share and the share of all the votes for McCain/Palin and Obama/Biden that were cast by young people.

Nov. 5 (probably by 8 am ET) – Youth turnout estimate available

Youth turnout measures what percentage of youth turned out to vote. The CIRCLE youth turnout estimate will be the only basis for saying whether youth turnout rose or fell in 2008. Reporting that youth turnout rose or fell based on the youth share as reported by the exit polls would be an error.

Nov. 5, 2 pm ET – Conference call-in Press Briefing

CIRCLE will hold a conference call-in Press Briefing to discuss the latest results in detail and to put the data into context. The dial-in number for the call is 877-844-6052 (no access code needed)

WHAT ELSE:
Youth voter share is gathered from National exit polls. For comparison, in 2004, 17 percent of voters were young. John Kerry won 54 percent of young voters; George W. Bush won 44 percent. In 2000, 17 percent were young. Al Gore won 47.6 percent of young voters, George W. Bush won 46.2 percent, and Ralph Nader won 4.7 percent. Additionally, young citizens represent 21 percent of the whole voting-age population.

There is no official count of the number of young people who vote. All youth turnout statistics are estimates, based on surveys. In reporting changes in turnout, it is most important to use similar methodologies for all years. The US Census provides consistent estimates of youth turnout but does not collect its data until well after each election. The only reliable estimate immediately after an election relies on the exit polls. There are actually several exit polls conducted in each election, and each poll may produce somewhat different estimates.

Youth Voter Turnout estimated by CIRCLE on early November 5 will be based on a formula that uses National exit poll results, counts of ballots (from local election officials), and demographic information about state populations from the Census. For comparison, on the day after the election this method estimated that youth voter turnout in 2004 was 48 percent. CIRCLE adjusted this number when the Census released its national voting survey, conducted in November 2004, which reported youth turnout to be around 49%.

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